• 

  42%

  −0.1%

  Contained Drone Cycle

  The most likely path is continued Houthi launches against symbolic Saudi targets, with Saudi air defenses intercepting most inbound drones and missiles. The Medina incident fits a pattern of pressure tactics rather than a confirmed successful strategic strike.

  Energy +0.2% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  26%

  −0.3%

  Saudi Retaliation

  Riyadh could respond to repeated attacks on Medina, Riyadh, and energy facilities with targeted strikes against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure. This would raise headline risk but would remain below a direct Saudi-Iran confrontation unless casualties or oil disruptions follow.

  Energy +0.8% · Consumer Services −0.7% · Industrials +0.4%

• 

  20%

  −0.6%

  Infrastructure Strike Succeeds

  A Houthi drone or missile could evade defenses and hit an airport, power node, refinery, or pipeline. Given the recent claims of refinery and airport attacks, energy infrastructure is the market-sensitive tail within the near-term scenario set.

  Energy +1.5% · Consumer Services −1.3% · Utilities −0.2%

• 

  9%

  +0.2%

  Diplomatic Pause

  Oman, the United Nations, and Washington could push both sides to prevent attacks near religious sites from derailing prior de-escalation channels. This is less likely than continued exchanges, but both Riyadh and the Houthis have incentives to avoid uncontrolled escalation.

  Consumer Services +0.5% · Energy −0.2%

• 

  3%

  −1.6%

  Regional Spillover

  The low-probability but high-impact path is that evidence of Iranian operational support leads to wider military or sanctions escalation. This would materially raise Gulf security risk, especially if US, UK, Saudi, or Iranian assets become directly involved.

  Energy +2.8% · Consumer Services −2.1% · Finance −0.9%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.