• 

  

  35%

  +0.5%

  Huang Retains Control

  The most likely outcome is that Nvidia’s board and federal investigators find embarrassing personal conduct but no clear evidence that Jensen Huang compromised company secrets or export-controlled technology. The securities lawsuit remains a distraction, but investors refocus on Nvidia’s AI chip demand and datacenter order book.

  Technology +0.4%

• 

  

  30%

  −0.1%

  Litigation Overhang Deepens

  Shareholder litigation becomes the main near-term risk after the stock-price collapse. Plaintiffs argue Nvidia and its directors failed to disclose security and governance risks tied to Huang’s relationship, while Nvidia seeks dismissal and denies material wrongdoing.

• 

  

  25%

  −0.3%

  Security Probe Escalates

  The FBI probe expands into a broader national-security and export-control review, drawing attention from the Trump administration, Congress, and the Commerce Department. This scenario creates a modest sector read-through for advanced semiconductors because Nvidia is central to AI chip supply and U.S.-China technology restrictions.

  Technology −0.3%

• 

  

  10%

  −0.2%

  Succession Fight Erupts

  A less likely but high-impact outcome is that the scandal becomes a boardroom succession crisis. Because Huang is closely identified with Nvidia’s AI strategy, any uncertainty over his role would create a sharper company-specific reaction than ordinary executive misconduct news.

  Technology −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.