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Brent tops $100 for a third day after Iran rejects the latest Hormuz offer

Possible scenarios

  • 64%Fed raises rates again as oil keeps inflation above 3%▼−2.1%
  • 27%Fed holds at 3.75–4.00% as a Hormuz deal pulls oil lower▲+1.5%
  • 9%Fed hikes twice more, to 4.25–4.50%▼−3.8%

Iran turned down a US proposal to reopen the strait in stages, and traders pushed Brent back to about $104. Higher fuel costs feed straight into headline inflation, which the Fed is watching closely.

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