Today’s BriefUS Politics
Scenarios
Portfolio
Following its sweep of the midterm elections, the Democratic party will assume leadership of the U.S. Congress in January, enabling a shift in the legislative balance of power for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026
99%Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more
97%
NickJul 13
The market cannot yet tell you which robot form factor, OEM, or actuator architecture wins. It can tell you one thing with near certainty: whatever gets built will be full of bearings. Every motor and every joint in a robot requires at...
camwestAug 4
People drop thousand-word AI critiques into my @Notion docs without reading the page. I get screenshots in ten-point font captioned "here's what @Claude thinks," and pull requests so big the sender clearly never re-read them. My company...
sdgJun 16
I'm betting on three categories of winners for the AI theme in the next months/years: 1\. Disappearing of the tech "middle class" 📈 LONG Technology mega-cap: the cost expenditure of building data centers, and ability for mega-cap tech...
Persistent French sovereign-bond market stress
DeepSeek closes at least $12 billion financing and expands Huawei-based AI infrastructure
Binding advancement of Gulf crude-export infrastructure bypassing Hormuz
Portfolio
Portfolio
+1.7%
Nov 4 close
−8.0%
From todayDemocrats Seize Control of Both Congress Houses to Target Trump’s Iran War Funding
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
Portfolio
+1.7%
Nov 4 close
Prediction markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
4%
11%
