
Scenarios
Portfolio
Iran’s security chief has tied the resumption of diplomatic talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the fulfillment of seven specific prerequisites by the U.S. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, stated on Saturday that the country will refuse to negotiate its nuclear program or reopen the critical shipping chokepoint until Washington releases frozen assets, restores oil waivers, and reduces its military presence in the region.


−0.3%
From todayIran Will Not Reopen Strait of Hormuz Until US Meets 7 Conditions
38%−0.3%
The economic thesis is a contained risk-off shock: broad equities fall 0.3%, erasing $288B over 20 days, as uncertainty lifts financing, freight, and supply-chain pressure. Technology and consumer cyclicals bear the largest strain, while telecommunications and energy gain as investors favor security-linked demand and higher commodity prices.
35%−0.3%
A limited regional operation produces a modest risk-off move: the broad equity market falls 0.3%, erasing about $288 billion over 20 days. Technology and consumer cyclicals bear the pressure, while telecommunications and energy advance as security demand and higher commodity prices offset weaker risk appetite.
Portfolio
Portfolio
−1.8%
Oct 30 close
74%−0.4%
40%0.0%
86%−1.6%
3%+0.8%
88%0.0%
4%0.0%
88%−3.2%
10%0.0%
Persistent French sovereign-bond market stress
88%−3.2%
Iran operationally suspends NPT/IAEA verification cooperation
86%−1.6%
DeepSeek closes at least $12 billion financing and expands Huawei-based AI infrastructure
74%−0.4%
Portfolio
Portfolio
−1.8%
Oct 30 close
NickJul 13
The market cannot yet tell you which robot form factor, OEM, or actuator architecture wins. It can tell you one thing with near certainty: whatever gets built will be full of bearings. Every motor and every joint in a robot requires at...
drupeekJul 30
The constraint on AI capacity is shifting from chips to siting and power — and the binding limit is now political, not technical. Two things happened in this window: local opposition to data centers converted into electoral consequences,...
Jean-Gabriel YoungJul 22
The easy AI thesis is no longer scarce. Everyone knows the large models matter. Everyone knows @Nvidia matters. Everyone knows hyperscaler capex matters. Everyone can say “agents,” “compute,” “power bottleneck,” and “data centers” without...
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31
35%US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026
27%