Today’s BriefGeopolitics
Scenarios
Portfolio
Tehran has dismissed claims that a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent with Washington, asserting that no progress toward an agreement has been made and no concessions were granted regarding its nuclear program.
Iran operationally suspends NPT/IAEA verification cooperation
86%−1.6%
DeepSeek closes at least $12 billion financing and expands Huawei-based AI infrastructure
74%−0.4%
Binding advancement of Gulf crude-export infrastructure bypassing Hormuz
23%+0.2%
Portfolio
Portfolio
−0.5%
Nov 2 close
camwestAug 4
People drop thousand-word AI critiques into my @Notion docs without reading the page. I get screenshots in ten-point font captioned "here's what @Claude thinks," and pull requests so big the sender clearly never re-read them. My company...
NickJul 13
The market cannot yet tell you which robot form factor, OEM, or actuator architecture wins. It can tell you one thing with near certainty: whatever gets built will be full of bearings. Every motor and every joint in a robot requires at...
sdgJun 16
I'm betting on three categories of winners for the AI theme in the next months/years: 1\. Disappearing of the tech "middle class" 📈 LONG Technology mega-cap: the cost expenditure of building data centers, and ability for mega-cap tech...
−8.0%
From todayIran Rejects Reported Nuclear Deal and Demands U.S. Meet 7 Conditions to Open Hormuz
87%−7.5%
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
13%−12.8%
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
2%+4.3%
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
74%−0.4%
40%0.0%
88%0.0%
4%0.0%
86%−1.6%
3%+0.8%
64%0.0%
23%+0.2%
Portfolio
−0.5%
Nov 2 close
Prediction markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by…
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
6%
12%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026
13%Will Anthropic’s IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T
30%2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
74%
