Today’s BriefCommodities
How it could play out
Portfolio
US Central Command said Thursday there has been no change in its force posture in the Middle East, calling Israeli reports that it told Israel and Gulf allies to prepare for an imminent resumption of war with Iran “mere speculation.”
From todayCENTCOM Denies Warning Israel to Prepare for New Iran War as Trump Threatens Strikes
The economic thesis is a contained risk-off shock: broad equities fall 0.3%, erasing $288B over 20 days, as uncertainty lifts financing, freight, and supply-chain pressure. Technology and consumer cyclicals bear the largest strain, while telecommunications and energy gain as investors favor security-linked demand and higher commodity prices.
A limited regional operation produces a modest risk-off move: the broad equity market falls 0.3%, erasing about $288 billion over 20 days. Technology and consumer cyclicals bear the pressure, while telecommunications and energy advance as security demand and higher commodity prices offset weaker risk appetite.
Portfolio
Portfolio
Prediction markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through…
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through…
The crowd, on a related question
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through…?
1%
4%
6%
The crowd, on a related question
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through…?
1%
4%
6%
Iran operationally suspends NPT/IAEA verification cooperation
Bipartisan U.S. energy and infrastructure permitting reform enacted
Tesla Austin robotaxi operational constraint
Portfolio
Portfolio
Tom Creighton · Jul 30
The big five #hyperscalers have guided analysts toward something in the range of $700 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, roughly 2% of US GDP and more than the combined military budgets of Germany, France, the UK, Japan, Italy and...
Nick · Jul 13
The market cannot yet tell you which robot form factor, OEM, or actuator architecture wins. It can tell you one thing with near certainty: whatever gets built will be full of bearings. Every motor and every joint in a robot requires at...
Ivolver · Jun 10
Subsidized intelligence is the bubble. Q3 is when the invoice arrives. The AI trade rests on a number almost nobody prices: the true cost of a token. Every demo that wows a boardroom, every "agent" that drafts a contract or reconciles a...
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 November 9-15
