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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy reported that three oil tankers caught fire and were abandoned on the southern shores of the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines within the last 24 hours.
NickJul 13
The market cannot yet tell you which robot form factor, OEM, or actuator architecture wins. It can tell you one thing with near certainty: whatever gets built will be full of bearings. Every motor and every joint in a robot requires at...
drupeekJul 30
The constraint on AI capacity is shifting from chips to siting and power — and the binding limit is now political, not technical. Two things happened in this window: local opposition to data centers converted into electoral consequences,...
Jean-Gabriel YoungJul 22
The easy AI thesis is no longer scarce. Everyone knows the large models matter. Everyone knows @Nvidia matters. Everyone knows hyperscaler capex matters. Everyone can say “agents,” “compute,” “power bottleneck,” and “data centers” without...
Persistent French sovereign-bond market stress
88%−3.2%
Iran operationally suspends NPT/IAEA verification cooperation
86%−1.6%
Coordinated US-Japan official action to support the yen
23%−1.5%
Formal challenge to Nvidia’s ownership or control of Hugging Face by 2027-03-31
86%−0.3%
Portfolio
Portfolio
+0.3%
Oct 28 close
−8.0%
From todayIran Claims 3 More Oil Tankers Struck Sea Mines in Strait of Hormuz
87%−7.5%
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
13%−12.8%
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
2%+4.3%
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
86%−1.6%
3%+0.8%
23%−1.5%
18%−0.5%
88%−3.2%
10%0.0%
15%0.0%
8%0.0%
86%−0.3%
14%−0.3%
Portfolio
+0.3%
Oct 28 close
Prediction markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by…
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
100%
95%
89%
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
0%
6%
12%
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
100%
95%
89%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026
16%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting
100%US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31
4%
