• 

  45%

  −0.1%

  Limited Damage Confirmed

  Saudi authorities and Aramco confirm attempted Houthi strikes on pipeline stations and the Abqaiq complex, but report limited physical damage and no durable export loss. This is the most likely path because Saudi air defenses, redundancy, and rapid repair capacity have historically contained many attacks after initial claims.

  Energy +0.6% · Consumer Services −0.2%

• 

  25%

  −0.7%

  Sustained Oil Disruption

  The attacks cause more meaningful damage to pipeline stations or Abqaiq processing equipment, reducing Saudi flexibility and delaying some crude movements. This would be a material but still contained energy-market shock unless exports are cut sharply for weeks.

  Energy +2.0% · Consumer Services −0.8% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.5%

• 

  20%

  −0.9%

  Military Retaliation Escalates

  Saudi Arabia, potentially with U.S. intelligence support, responds with strikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen. The key risk is not the initial retaliation but whether Houthis widen attacks toward ports, airports, or additional Gulf energy assets.

  Energy +2.5% · Consumer Services −1.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.7%

• 

  10%

  +0.3%

  Diplomatic De-escalation

  Oman, the UN, or regional intermediaries use the latest attacks to revive back-channel talks on cross-border strikes. This scenario is less likely given the recent tempo of Houthi claims, but both sides may still prefer avoiding a sustained oil-infrastructure confrontation.

  Consumer Services +0.7% · Energy −0.6%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.