• 

  40%

  −0.2%

  Contained Saudi Disruption

  Saudi air defenses intercept most incoming missiles and drones, limiting physical damage and keeping oil exports broadly stable. This is the most likely path because recent Houthi strikes have been frequent but often designed for political signaling as much as sustained operational disruption.

  Energy +0.6% · Consumer Services −0.3% · Industrials −0.1%

• 

  30%

  −0.8%

  Sustained Houthi Campaign

  The Houthis continue attacks over several days, seeking to demonstrate that Saudi economic infrastructure remains vulnerable. This would raise the risk premium in crude markets and pressure Saudi travel and logistics, even if the damage remains below the scale of the 2019 Abqaiq disruption.

  Energy +2.0% · Consumer Services −1.7% · Industrials −1.1%

• 

  20%

  −1.3%

  Saudi Retaliation Escalates

  Riyadh responds militarily against Houthi launch sites, air-defense nodes, or logistics facilities in Yemen. This path is less likely than containment but plausible given repeated attacks on airports and energy infrastructure.

  Energy +2.8% · Consumer Services −1.8% · Industrials −1.4%

• 

  10%

  +0.5%

  Diplomatic De-escalation

  Oman, the United Nations, or the United States reopens back-channel talks after both sides absorb the costs of renewed escalation. This is a lower-probability path in the immediate aftermath of repeated attacks, but the 2023 ceasefire precedent keeps it realistic.

  Energy −1.1% · Consumer Services +0.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.