• 

  40%−0.6%

  Threats Remain Contained

  The evacuation order proves precautionary, with Washington and Riyadh keeping diplomatic and military operations functioning. Houthi threats continue, but Saudi air defenses and US intelligence support prevent a high-casualty or high-disruption strike in the immediate period.

  Energy +0.9% · Consumer Services −0.9% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3%

• 

  30%−1.7%

  Energy Infrastructure Hit

  Houthis exploit the threat window to attack Saudi oil infrastructure again, putting crude supply security back at the center of the market reaction. The key uncertainty is whether the damage is quickly repaired or causes measurable export losses.

  Energy +4.1% · Consumer Services −3.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.6%

• 

  20%−1.0%

  US-Saudi Retaliation

  Washington and Riyadh conclude that further deterrence requires direct military action against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure. The market impact depends on whether strikes remain limited to Yemen or expand into a confrontation with Iranian-linked assets.

  Energy +2.6% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.1% · Technology −1.6%

• 

  10%+0.8%

  Diplomatic De-Escalation

  The evacuation order increases diplomatic urgency, leading Oman, the UN, and possibly Iran to push for a narrow pause in cross-border attacks. This outcome lowers the immediate Gulf risk premium but does not fully resolve the Yemen-Saudi conflict.

  Energy −1.2% · Consumer Services +1.0% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.