• 

  

  62%+0.1%

  Democratic sweep confirmed

  The DDHQ forecast proves broadly accurate, with Democrats taking both chambers by narrow margins. This is the baseline because late generic-ballot and toss-up-district data showed a consistent Democratic edge before Election Day.

  Healthcare −0.9% · Energy −0.6% · Utilities +0.6%

• 

  

  24%+0.2%

  Split Congress result

  The forecast is partly right, but one chamber remains Republican. This is plausible because Senate control depends on a small number of close races, and late polling shifts do not guarantee uniform Democratic conversion in every battleground.

  Finance +0.2% · Utilities −0.2% · Energy +0.2%

• 

  

  10%+0.1%

  Republican forecast miss

  Republicans outperform the final forecast and keep both chambers. This is a lower-probability but realistic polling-error scenario, especially if late-deciding voters and turnout patterns break more Republican than expected.

  Energy +1.3% · Finance +1.1% · Utilities −0.9%

• 

  

  4%−0.7%

  Control remains contested

  The election outcome does not resolve quickly, with recounts, ballot challenges, or litigation delaying control of one or both chambers. This is the least likely branch but carries the largest short-term market uncertainty because investors cannot confidently price the fiscal and regulatory path.

  Finance −0.9% · Technology −0.8% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.