VoteHub estimates incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff has won 53.7% to 61.7% of the 1,600,694 early ballots cast in Georgia’s US Senate race through Oct 23, compared with 38.3% to 46.3% for Republican Mike Collins. The tally represents 41.1% of projected final turnout and is up from 846,617 ballots a week earlier, when the tracker upgraded the race from Likely D to Solid D. Even as remaining votes are expected to lean more Republican, Polymarket gives Ossoff a 96% chance of winning.

Higher turnout in metro Atlanta’s suburbs and other population centers has outpaced rural parts of the state, while voters who sat out the 2024 election have skewed heavily toward Democrats. “We have to overperform in rural Georgia, or we’re not going to win,” Rick Jackson said of the geographic divide. ColdSpark’s partisanship model put the cumulative in person early vote margin at D+10.9% after the second weekend of voting, or D+11.2% including mail ballots, widening from D+10.2% before the weekend.

Black voters accounted for more than 30% of the daily electorate across each of the first eight days of early voting, compared with two days over the same span in 2024 and five days through the first nine days in 2022. Although the daily Black share later dipped below 30% on several weekdays, cumulative turnout through Sunday, Oct 25 stood at 32.3% Black and 52.9% White, following a first day midterm record of 188,628 ballots on Oct 13.