Early Vote Misread

12%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The early-vote surge proves less Democratic than expected because of Republican crossover into early voting, weaker youth participation, or overestimation of metro Democratic ballot completion. Ossoff remains competitive, but the headline’s implied lead is revised downward.

What it moves

Finance+0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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