• 

  45%+0.2%

  Democratic Cushion Holds

  The modeled 331,000-ballot early-vote lead proves directionally accurate, giving Democratic candidates a meaningful cushion before Election Day. Republican turnout improves in the final week, but not enough to fully erase the early-vote advantage across the most competitive statewide and congressional contests.

  Finance +0.1% · Technology +0.1%

• 

  25%0.0%

  Republican Turnout Surge

  Republicans benefit from Donald Trump’s late push for mail and absentee voting while still producing a strong Election Day turnout operation. The Democratic early-vote lead shrinks sharply, making North Carolina’s competitive races dependent on late-counted ballots and county-level margins.

  Finance −0.1% · Technology −0.1%

• 

  20%−0.1%

  Ballot Rules Litigation

  The new mail-ballot rules that already disqualified thousands of ballots become central to close races. Campaigns, the North Carolina State Board of Elections and state courts face pressure over cure deadlines, signature requirements and county-level rejection rates.

  Finance −0.1% · Technology −0.1%

• 

  10%−0.3%

  Modeling Error Emerges

  The 331,000-ballot modeled lead overstates Democrats’ actual advantage because unaffiliated voters break more Republican than expected or because ballot-mode assumptions prove wrong. The headline remains important, but campaigns and analysts revise expectations quickly as more voter-file data becomes available.

  Finance −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.