Possible scenario
Democratic Cushion Holds
45%
+0.2%
The modeled 331,000-ballot early-vote lead proves directionally accurate, giving Democratic candidates a meaningful cushion before Election Day. Republican turnout improves in the final week, but not enough to fully erase the early-vote advantage across the most competitive statewide and congressional contests.
What it moves
- Finance+0.1%
- Technology+0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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