• 

  54%+0.1%

  Clear Cooper Victory

  Roy Cooper converts the record Democratic early-vote lead into a decisive November win over Michael Whatley. The outcome reflects strong turnout in Wake, Mecklenburg, Durham, and Guilford counties, plus enough suburban support to offset Republican Election Day voting.

  Finance −0.3% · Healthcare +0.3% · Energy −0.1%

• 

  24%−0.1%

  Narrow Cooper Win

  Cooper still wins, but the record early-vote lead proves less predictive than expected because Republican Election Day turnout narrows the gap. This outcome gives Democrats the seat while keeping North Carolina politically competitive into 2028.

  Finance −0.2% · Healthcare +0.1%

• 

  16%0.0%

  Whatley Comeback Win

  Michael Whatley overcomes the Democratic early-vote lead through strong Republican Election Day turnout and improved margins in rural and exurban counties. This is an upset relative to the current headline and would modestly lift Republican odds of holding or expanding Senate control.

  Finance +0.5% · Energy +0.5% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  6%−0.3%

  Prolonged Disputed Result

  The race becomes close enough that recounts, provisional ballots, and county-level challenges delay a final call. Because this is only one Senate race, the market reaction is limited unless national chamber control depends on North Carolina.

  Finance −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1% · Technology −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.