Narrow Cooper Win

24%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Cooper still wins, but the record early-vote lead proves less predictive than expected because Republican Election Day turnout narrows the gap. This outcome gives Democrats the seat while keeping North Carolina politically competitive into 2028.

What it moves

Finance−0.2%
Healthcare+0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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