Decision Desk HQ forecasts give Democrats a strong edge in these contests, with win probabilities of 92% in Nebraska, 82% in New Jersey and 76% in Iowa. The potential cut to Iowa's 1st district is particularly notable as Donald Trump holds a lead of 8 points there, though Miller-Meeks has consistently run behind him and barely won her 2020 and 2024 bids.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Trump’s Poll Slide Forces House GOP Triage of 3 Race Budgets
US Politics17 days ago
A growing number of legislators are privately convinced the party cannot keep its control of the lower chamber after internal data revealed a decline in support for the top of the ticket over the last fortnight. More than a dozen people familiar with the discussions told CNN that approval ratings for President Donald Trump have sunk, including in traditionally red areas, prompting the House GOP to enter triage mode. Leadership is now discussing pulling funding from an open seat in Nebraska and the campaigns of Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa.
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