Possible scenario
Trump Drag Deepens
18% Chance
The poll slide worsens and becomes self-reinforcing: donors, candidates and outside groups act as though a Democratic House takeover is inevitable. Republican incumbents distance themselves from Trump more openly, creating mixed messages that weaken turnout among core GOP voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Finance -0.6%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.