Possible scenario
GOP Limits Losses
27% Chance
House Republicans use triage to concentrate money on districts where Trump is least toxic and local incumbents can outrun the national environment. The party remains behind nationally, but the map becomes less uniformly hostile than the generic ballot implies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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