Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
43% Chance
Trump's weak approval and the GOP's decision to cut spending in three vulnerable races reinforce the perception that Republicans are retreating from a widening map. The DCCC expands its targets while Hakeem Jeffries publicly frames the midterm as a referendum on Trump and House Republican dysfunction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.3%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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