• 

  55%−0.2%

  Democratic House Flip

  The expanded House Majority PAC buy reinforces the pattern from Cook Political Report moves and prior Democratic targeting of Trump-won districts. Democrats convert the broader battlefield into a House majority, with Hakeem Jeffries positioned to become speaker and Republicans losing control despite late rescue spending by Trump-backed PACs.

  Finance −0.5% · Energy −0.3% · Healthcare −0.2%

• 

  25%+0.2%

  GOP Narrowly Holds

  Republican outside groups, including Congressional Leadership Fund and Trump-aligned PACs, successfully offset the Democratic advertising expansion in enough districts to retain control. The GOP majority remains thin, but Mike Johnson or another Republican speaker keeps the House aligned with the Trump White House on taxes, energy and regulation.

  Finance +0.4% · Energy +0.4% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  12%−0.4%

  Control Remains Unclear

  The late ad expansion proves that the battlefield is wide, but the election produces several races inside recount margins. Neither party can immediately claim a House majority, and investors price a small governance-risk premium until outstanding seats are resolved.

  Finance −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

• 

  8%+0.2%

  GOP Overperforms Late

  The Democratic ad expansion proves to be a sign of opportunity rather than momentum, and Republicans nationalize the final week around immigration, inflation and Trump turnout. The GOP emerges with a more comfortable House majority than most handicappers expected.

  Finance +0.5% · Energy +0.5% · Industrials +0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.