GOP Narrowly Holds

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republican outside groups, including Congressional Leadership Fund and Trump-aligned PACs, successfully offset the Democratic advertising expansion in enough districts to retain control. The GOP majority remains thin, but Mike Johnson or another Republican speaker keeps the House aligned with the Trump White House on taxes, energy and regulation.

What it moves

Finance+0.4%
Energy+0.4%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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