• 

  35%−0.4%

  Democratic Seat Gains

  The $53 million Epstein-focused campaign materially damages Republican incumbents in several red-leaning districts, especially where suburban voters are already uneasy about Trump. Democrats convert the issue into a character-and-transparency referendum while keeping economic messaging in the background.

  Finance −0.3% · Energy −0.3% · Technology −0.1%

• 

  30%+0.2%

  GOP Defense Holds

  Trump-aligned super PACs and local Republican campaigns blunt the Epstein attacks by arguing Democrats are recycling old scandal material instead of addressing prices, immigration and crime. The targeted seats tighten, but most remain Republican because of partisan baselines and late conservative turnout.

  Energy +0.4% · Finance +0.3%

• 

  20%−0.2%

  Issue Nationalizes Further

  The ad buy turns the Epstein files into a national midterm issue rather than a district-level attack. New DOJ material, congressional leaks or campaign missteps keep Trump’s past association with Epstein in the news through the final week.

  Technology −0.3% · Finance −0.2% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  15%0.0%

  Ad Impact Fades

  The Epstein message saturates quickly and loses salience as voters return to inflation, wages, immigration and local candidate quality. Democrats still run the ads, but the campaign becomes one input among many rather than the defining midterm issue.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.