• 

  55%+0.3%

  Clear Democratic Majority

  Kalshi’s 81% election-night pricing is confirmed by actual returns, with Democrats flipping enough Republican-held seats to take a workable Senate majority. This is the most likely path because both Kalshi and Polymarket had already moved decisively toward Democratic control before final results.

  Energy −0.8% · Finance −0.6% · Healthcare +0.6%

• 

  25%+0.2%

  Narrow Democratic Control

  Democrats take the Senate by the slimmest practical margin, leaving control dependent on every caucus member. This outcome fits the prediction-market direction but leaves investors expecting constrained legislation and heavy procedural bottlenecks.

  Energy −0.4% · Finance −0.4% · Healthcare +0.3%

• 

  10%−0.6%

  Disputed Senate Outcome

  Election night ends without a clear Senate winner despite prediction markets favoring Democrats. The unresolved outcome creates a short-lived risk-off move, especially if control hinges on recounts, provisional ballots, or a December runoff.

  Finance −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.4% · Technology −0.3%

• 

  10%+0.4%

  Republicans Hold Senate

  Republicans defy the late prediction-market consensus and keep Senate control. Because this would be a meaningful surprise against Kalshi’s 81% Democratic odds, the initial market reaction favors deregulation-sensitive sectors, though the move is limited by the single-chamber scope.

  Finance +1.0% · Energy +1.0% · Healthcare −0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.