• 

  37%+1.0%

  Narrow Ceasefire Framework

  The most constructive path is a limited agreement focused on energy infrastructure, Black Sea exports and prisoner exchanges rather than a full political settlement. This fits Trump’s prior push for an energy ceasefire and gives China a diplomatic win without forcing Putin into immediate territorial concessions.

  Energy −1.5% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.9% · Finance +0.7%

• 

  31%+0.2%

  Symbolic Summit Only

  The summit happens or remains on track, but produces mainly diplomatic language and a commitment to keep talking. This is plausible because China, Russia and the United States have conflicting objectives, and excluding Zelensky limits the credibility of any settlement.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.2% · Energy −0.2%

• 

  20%−0.7%

  Talks Break Down

  The summit process stalls before a leader meeting because Kyiv and European governments reject a deal negotiated without Ukraine, or because Washington, Beijing and Moscow cannot align on protocol and sanctions. This would modestly revive geopolitical risk premia after markets had priced a chance of diplomacy.

  Consumer Cyclicals −0.5% · Energy +0.4% · Technology −0.3%

• 

  12%−1.3%

  Escalation Around Summit

  A lower-probability but realistic path is that one side uses the pre-summit window to improve leverage, or Western governments answer the format with sanctions and military commitments. This would make the diplomatic opening look fragile and generate a sharper, though still not crisis-scale, market reaction.

  Energy +1.6% · Finance −1.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.9%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.