• 

  45%−0.2%

  Sanctions Line Holds

  The most likely outcome is that Sergey Lavrov uses the summit to argue against sanctions, but the United States, G7, and European Union keep the core Russia sanctions architecture intact. Washington may allow protocol-level contact, but domestic pressure from senators and continued Ukraine funding make formal relief unlikely.

  Energy +0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

• 

  25%+0.4%

  Limited Technical Openings

  Lavrov secures narrow discussions on technical implementation rather than broad relief. This could include humanitarian channels, fertilizer transactions, shipping insurance mechanics, or price-cap enforcement details, while core financial and energy sanctions remain in place.

  Energy −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3% · Industrials +0.3%

• 

  15%−0.3%

  US Backlash Dominates

  Domestic US criticism of Russia’s G20 access becomes the dominant story, especially after senators urged President Trump to revoke Putin’s invitation. The administration limits visible engagement with Lavrov to avoid appearing to reward Moscow before any Ukraine concessions.

  Consumer Services −0.5% · Industrials +0.3% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  10%−0.6%

  Russia Escalates Rhetoric

  If Lavrov concludes that sanctions relief is impossible, Moscow may use the G20 platform to threaten retaliation. The most market-sensitive form would be language around oil exports, shadow-fleet restrictions, or cooperation with non-G7 buyers.

  Energy +1.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.6% · Industrials −0.3%

• 

  5%+0.9%

  Ukraine Talks Breakthrough

  A low-probability but meaningful outcome is that Lavrov’s attendance creates a structured channel for Ukraine-related talks. This would not end the war or lift sanctions immediately, but it would lower tail-risk pricing around escalation and future energy disruptions.

  Industrials +0.9% · Energy −0.9% · Technology +0.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.