• 

  50%+0.2%

  Narrow Democratic Control

  The projected victories in New Jersey and Delaware hold, and Democrats secure just enough battleground wins to take a narrow Senate majority. This is the base case because final polls and forecasts already favored Democrats, limiting surprise in markets.

  Utilities +0.5% · Healthcare −0.4% · Finance −0.3%

• 

  20%+0.3%

  Larger Democratic Wave

  Democrats outperform the already favorable projections and turn the five projected victories into a more comfortable Senate majority. This would raise expectations for hearings, confirmations, and legislation tied to healthcare, clean energy, labor, and financial regulation.

  Utilities +1.3% · Healthcare −1.3% · Finance −0.9%

• 

  18%−0.5%

  Recounts Delay Control

  Democrats are still favored, but close battleground margins trigger recounts or extended ballot verification. The delay creates temporary uncertainty, lifting volatility modestly without implying a systemic political crisis.

  Technology −0.6% · Finance −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.4%

• 

  12%−0.3%

  Projection Reversal

  One of the projected Democratic victories outside New Jersey and Delaware fails to hold after late-counted ballots or corrected precinct reporting. This is less likely given the polling backdrop and current projections, but it would materially change expectations for Senate control.

  Utilities −0.9% · Finance +0.6% · Healthcare +0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.