Projection Reversal

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

One of the projected Democratic victories outside New Jersey and Delaware fails to hold after late-counted ballots or corrected precinct reporting. This is less likely given the polling backdrop and current projections, but it would materially change expectations for Senate control.

What it moves

Utilities−0.9%
Finance+0.6%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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