Possible scenario
Recounts Delay Control
−0.5%
Democrats are still favored, but close battleground margins trigger recounts or extended ballot verification. The delay creates temporary uncertainty, lifting volatility modestly without implying a systemic political crisis.
What it moves
- Technology−0.6%
- Finance−0.5%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.