• 

  45%+0.3%

  Narrow Democratic Senate

  The final NYT polling edge holds broadly, giving Democrats a small Senate majority while President Trump remains in the White House. The most likely path is Democratic holds in Georgia and New Hampshire plus Republican-held losses in Maine and North Carolina, ending John Thune’s majority after one Congress.

  Energy −0.9% · Utilities +0.8% · Finance −0.7%

• 

  25%−0.4%

  Democratic Wave Breaks

  The late polling proves conservative rather than overstated, and weak Trump approval produces a broader Democratic midterm wave. Democrats not only win the core battlegrounds but also threaten Republican incumbents such as Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Dan Sullivan or John Cornyn, depending on the state-level map.

  Energy −1.5% · Finance −1.3% · Utilities +1.1%

• 

  22%+0.5%

  Republicans Hold Senate

  The final NYT polls overstate Democratic strength, as turnout and late undecideds break toward Republicans in enough states to preserve John Thune’s majority. This would resemble a conventional polling miss rather than a constitutional shock, with markets leaning toward policy continuity under Trump.

  Energy +1.0% · Finance +0.9% · Utilities −0.4%

• 

  8%−0.6%

  Control Remains Unresolved

  The polling signal is broadly accurate, but several races close within recount or runoff thresholds, delaying clarity over Senate control. Because the market impact comes mainly from uncertainty rather than policy direction, volatility and credit spreads rise modestly while risk sectors soften.

  Finance −0.8% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.7% · Technology −0.6%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.