• 

  40%+0.3%

  GOP Narrow Hold

  Republicans keep Texas statewide but by a much smaller margin than in 2024. The 1.6-point early-vote edge suggests Democratic gains, but GOP Election Day turnout and rural margins are still enough to preserve the state’s red lean.

  Energy +0.5% · Finance +0.3%

• 

  30%−0.2%

  Democratic Breakthrough

  The early-vote shift proves to be a real structural change rather than simple vote timing. Democrats either flip a major statewide race or gain enough congressional ground in Texas to materially improve their national midterm position.

  Energy −0.8% · Finance −0.3% · Utilities +0.2%

• 

  20%−0.3%

  Recount Uncertainty

  The early-vote narrowing produces an extremely close final count. Legal challenges, provisional ballots and late-counted mail ballots keep the winner unclear long enough to create modest political uncertainty.

  Finance −0.4% · Technology −0.4% · Energy −0.2%

• 

  10%+0.4%

  GOP Turnout Rebound

  The early-vote data overstates Democratic strength because Republicans vote disproportionately on Election Day. The final result looks more like a normal Republican win than a true Texas toss-up.

  Energy +0.8% · Finance +0.5% · Industrials +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.