GOP Narrow Hold

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans keep Texas statewide but by a much smaller margin than in 2024. The 1.6-point early-vote edge suggests Democratic gains, but GOP Election Day turnout and rural margins are still enough to preserve the state’s red lean.

What it moves

Energy+0.5%
Finance+0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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