Possible scenario
Recount Uncertainty
20%
−0.3%
The early-vote narrowing produces an extremely close final count. Legal challenges, provisional ballots and late-counted mail ballots keep the winner unclear long enough to create modest political uncertainty.
What it moves
- Finance−0.4%
- Technology−0.4%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.