GOP Turnout Rebound

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The early-vote data overstates Democratic strength because Republicans vote disproportionately on Election Day. The final result looks more like a normal Republican win than a true Texas toss-up.

What it moves

Energy+0.8%
Finance+0.5%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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