Democratic Wave Breaks

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The late polling proves conservative rather than overstated, and weak Trump approval produces a broader Democratic midterm wave. Democrats not only win the core battlegrounds but also threaten Republican incumbents such as Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Dan Sullivan or John Cornyn, depending on the state-level map.

What it moves

Energy−1.5%
Finance−1.3%
10-year Treasury yield▼ down
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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