Narrow Democratic Senate

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The final NYT polling edge holds broadly, giving Democrats a small Senate majority while President Trump remains in the White House. The most likely path is Democratic holds in Georgia and New Hampshire plus Republican-held losses in Maine and North Carolina, ending John Thune’s majority after one Congress.

What it moves

Energy−0.9%
Utilities+0.8%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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