Republicans Hold Senate

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans defy the late prediction-market consensus and keep Senate control. Because this would be a meaningful surprise against Kalshi’s 81% Democratic odds, the initial market reaction favors deregulation-sensitive sectors, though the move is limited by the single-chamber scope.

What it moves

Finance+1.0%
Energy+1.0%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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