Split Congress result

24%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The forecast is partly right, but one chamber remains Republican. This is plausible because Senate control depends on a small number of close races, and late polling shifts do not guarantee uniform Democratic conversion in every battleground.

What it moves

Finance+0.2%
Utilities−0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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