Republican forecast miss

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans outperform the final forecast and keep both chambers. This is a lower-probability but realistic polling-error scenario, especially if late-deciding voters and turnout patterns break more Republican than expected.

What it moves

Energy+1.3%
Finance+1.1%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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