Threats Remain Contained

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The evacuation order proves precautionary, with Washington and Riyadh keeping diplomatic and military operations functioning. Houthi threats continue, but Saudi air defenses and US intelligence support prevent a high-casualty or high-disruption strike in the immediate period.

What it moves

Energy+0.9%
Consumer Services−0.9%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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