US-Saudi Retaliation

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington and Riyadh conclude that further deterrence requires direct military action against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure. The market impact depends on whether strikes remain limited to Yemen or expand into a confrontation with Iranian-linked assets.

What it moves

Energy+2.6%
Consumer Cyclicals−2.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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