• 

  45%−0.3%

  Contained Refinery Outage

  The most likely path is that Saudi Aramco keeps the damaged Ras Tanura unit offline for roughly a month while rerouting crude and refined-product flows through other facilities. Saudi air defenses and US intelligence support reduce the chance of an immediate follow-on hit, but risk premiums remain in crude and product markets.

  Energy +1.0% · Consumer Services −0.5% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  30%−1.3%

  Limited Military Escalation

  Riyadh concludes that another ceasefire offer would be interpreted as weakness and responds with targeted strikes, likely with US intelligence and air-defense support. The conflict remains geographically limited, but energy-security risk in the Gulf rises sharply for several sessions.

  Energy +2.8% · Consumer Services −1.6% · Finance −1.0%

• 

  15%+0.4%

  Ceasefire Track Revives

  Saudi Arabia uses the Ras Tanura disruption to press Oman, the UN, and Washington for a de-escalation package that protects energy infrastructure. The Houthis may accept a limited pause if it preserves leverage while avoiding harsher Saudi retaliation.

  Consumer Services +0.6% · Energy −0.6% · Industrials +0.3%

• 

  10%−2.4%

  Wider Gulf Disruption

  A lower-probability but high-impact scenario is that attacks expand from refinery units to export terminals or other critical Saudi processing facilities. That would shift the event from an isolated outage to a broader energy-security shock affecting crude exports, tanker routes, and risk assets.

  Energy +3.8% · Consumer Services −2.8% · Industrials −2.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.