• 

  45%−0.1%

  Contained Border Exchanges

  The most likely path is a continuation of the current pattern: Houthi drone and missile launches probe Saudi air defenses, while Riyadh avoids a major ground or air escalation. Saudi interception rates remain high, limiting physical damage and keeping the market reaction modest.

  Energy +0.3% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  25%−0.5%

  Energy Infrastructure Escalation

  The Houthis may shift from symbolic Riyadh strikes back toward oil infrastructure, following recent attacks on refineries and Aramco-linked facilities. Even limited damage would revive memories of the 2019 Abqaiq attack and put a larger geopolitical premium into crude prices.

  Energy +1.8% · Consumer Services −1.0% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.5%

• 

  18%+0.4%

  Omani Mediation Advances

  After repeated strikes near Riyadh, Oman and possibly the United Nations could press both sides toward a limited ceasefire or humanitarian pause. This is less likely than continued exchanges because Saudi Arabia recently rejected a truce tied to lost territory, but both sides have incentives to avoid a damaging oil-infrastructure spiral.

  Consumer Services +0.7% · Energy −0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%

• 

  12%−0.8%

  Regional Spillover Widens

  Saudi Arabia could decide that repeated strikes near Riyadh require a visible military response, especially if drones continue to penetrate deep into Saudi airspace. This scenario risks drawing in U.S. support, Iranian-backed rhetoric, or shipping concerns around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

  Energy +1.7% · Consumer Services −1.1% · Industrials +0.9%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.