Ceasefire Track Revives

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Saudi Arabia uses the Ras Tanura disruption to press Oman, the UN, and Washington for a de-escalation package that protects energy infrastructure. The Houthis may accept a limited pause if it preserves leverage while avoiding harsher Saudi retaliation.

What it moves

Consumer Services+0.6%
Energy−0.6%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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