Possible scenario
Contained Refinery Outage
45%
−0.3%
The most likely path is that Saudi Aramco keeps the damaged Ras Tanura unit offline for roughly a month while rerouting crude and refined-product flows through other facilities. Saudi air defenses and US intelligence support reduce the chance of an immediate follow-on hit, but risk premiums remain in crude and product markets.
What it moves
- Energy+1.0%
- Consumer Services−0.5%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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