Regional Spillover
−1.6%
The low-probability but high-impact path is that evidence of Iranian operational support leads to wider military or sanctions escalation. This would materially raise Gulf security risk, especially if US, UK, Saudi, or Iranian assets become directly involved.
What it moves
- Energy+2.8%
- Consumer Services−2.1%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.