• 

  

  40%

  −0.2%

  Contained Pipeline Outage

  Saudi Arabia and Saudi Aramco contain the damage to a limited segment of the East-West Pipeline, preventing a sustained export loss. This is the most likely path because Saudi infrastructure has redundancy, storage buffers, and emergency repair capacity, even after repeated Houthi claims.

  Energy +0.8% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  25%

  −1.0%

  Prolonged Export Disruption

  The strike causes a longer disruption to the East-West Pipeline, limiting Saudi Arabia’s ability to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and move crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea. This path would be materially more important for energy markets because the pipeline is a strategic export artery, not a local facility.

  Energy +2.7% · Consumer Services −1.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.6%

• 

  

  20%

  −1.3%

  Regional Military Escalation

  Riyadh treats the pipeline strike as a strategic attack and responds militarily against Ansarallah launch sites, with U.S. support or intelligence coordination possible. This scenario becomes more likely if Saudi or Western intelligence links the operation to Iranian targeting support.

  Energy +3.4% · Consumer Services −1.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.1%

• 

  

  15%

  +0.6%

  Diplomatic De-Escalation

  The attack pushes Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Nations, and possibly China to revive back-channel talks to prevent wider energy disruption. This remains less likely than a contained military-security response, but Saudi economic interests and oil-market stability give Riyadh incentives to limit escalation.

  Energy −1.1% · Consumer Services +1.1% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.