• 

  45%

  −0.4%

  Sustained Air Campaign

  Russia continues large missile and drone salvos against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure while Ukraine remains short of Patriot interceptors. The most likely near-term path is more damage and civilian casualties, but no immediate NATO entry into the conflict.

  Industrials +0.5% · Utilities −0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

• 

  30%

  +0.3%

  Air Defense Resupply

  The scale of civilian deaths increases pressure on Washington and European capitals to find replacement interceptors. A limited resupply would not change the war immediately, but it would reduce fears that Ukraine’s major cities are becoming undefended.

  Industrials +0.7% · Technology +0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

• 

  15%

  −0.9%

  NATO Border Escalation

  A Russian missile or drone incident near NATO territory triggers consultations and stronger air policing, but both Moscow and NATO avoid direct military confrontation. This is less likely than continued attacks inside Ukraine, but the Patriot shortage raises the risk of errant strikes and miscalculation.

  Industrials +1.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.8% · Finance −0.7%

• 

  10%

  +0.3%

  Limited De-Escalation

  Civilian casualties and winter risks revive diplomatic efforts to restrain attacks on power infrastructure or secure humanitarian measures. A full ceasefire remains unlikely, but even a narrow arrangement would reduce immediate geopolitical risk premia.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.4% · Industrials −0.3% · Technology +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.