• 

  35%

  +0.3%

  Legal Checks Contain Probe

  Courts, congressional privilege claims, and DOJ career-lawyer resistance limit the probe before it becomes a large criminal investigation. This is the most likely path because impeachment planning is core legislative activity, giving House Democrats strong Speech or Debate Clause arguments.

  Technology +0.4% · Finance +0.2% · Business Services +0.1%

• 

  30%

  −0.7%

  DOJ Escalates Investigation

  The Justice Department treats impeachment threats as potential obstruction or coercion and issues formal demands to Democratic offices and outside advisers. This would deepen the post-midterm confrontation and keep institutional-risk premia elevated, though it would still fall short of a full constitutional crisis unless arrests or indictments follow.

  Technology −0.9% · Finance −0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

• 

  20%

  −0.7%

  Impeachment Push Accelerates

  House Democrats use the DOJ probe as evidence of abuse of power and make it central to their planned investigations after taking control. The impeachment process becomes more likely, but conviction remains unlikely without a major Republican break in the Senate.

  Technology −0.8% · Finance −0.7% · Consumer Services −0.3%

• 

  15%

  +0.3%

  Political De-Escalation Emerges

  Republicans conclude the probe is politically costly after the midterm loss and encourage the White House to step back. The administration may still criticize Democrats publicly, but the criminal-investigation angle fades.

  Technology +0.4% · Finance +0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.