• 

  45%

  +0.1%

  Stable Reform Government

  Christopher Luxon leads a workable National-led coalition with ACT and New Zealand First, giving markets a broadly expected centre-right policy mix. The government prioritizes tax changes, public-sector restraint, faster consenting, and housing supply measures without triggering an immediate institutional dispute.

  Finance +0.6% · Non-Energy Materials +0.6% · Industrials +0.5%

• 

  25%

  −0.1%

  Constrained Coalition Bargain

  National returns to power but coalition management proves more complex than the headline implies. ACT presses for deeper spending cuts and regulatory rollback, while New Zealand First demands limits on immigration, foreign ownership, and selected social-policy changes.

  Non-Energy Materials −0.4% · Finance −0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

• 

  18%

  −0.1%

  Sharper Fiscal Reset

  The coalition interprets its win as a mandate for a more aggressive fiscal consolidation than markets initially assumed. That improves perceived medium-term budget discipline but risks weaker near-term demand while unemployment is already rising.

  Consumer Cyclicals −0.7% · Consumer Services −0.5% · Non-Energy Materials −0.2%

• 

  12%

  +0.2%

  Housing Confidence Rebound

  The change in government combines with already-depressed home prices to bring buyers back into the market earlier than expected. This scenario is less likely because unemployment is rising, but it would create a visible near-term lift for property-sensitive companies.

  Finance +0.8% · Non-Energy Materials +0.7% · Industrials +0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.