Qatar Pushes Two Day Plan to Reopen Hormuz as Iraq Warns of Renewed US-Iran War | Tilt

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Qatar Pushes Two Day Plan to Reopen Hormuz as Iraq Warns of Renewed US-Iran War

Qatari mediators are negotiating with the White House and Tehran on a two day draft plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks, regional sources said, even as President Donald Trump met with his national security team and said a decision on the Iran war is coming “soon.” Under the first day of the proposed sequence, the US would lift its naval blockade and unfreeze some Iranian funds, while Iran would invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to bombed nuclear sites under an agreement reached in Cairo a year ago. On the second day, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and negotiations would resume over Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, including a reported US proposal for Tehran to dilute 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium rather than surrender the material.

How it could play out

−8.0%Impact on the S&P 500 across 3 scenarios (−12.8% to +4.3%)

Scenarios

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

How it could play out

Scenarios

Story, how it could play out

3 ways this could read

Possible futures, not reported news · chances and moves from Tilt’s model

−7.5%
Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
Consumer Cyclicals −9.5% · Technology −8.8% · Industrials −7.8%
−12.8%
Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
+4.3%
Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
Consumer Cyclicals +5.3% · Technology +5.2% · Non-Energy Materials +4.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.

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Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput

Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation

Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement