Washington has targeted a series of missile launch platforms along the southern coast of Iran in a sequence of covert raids aimed at neutralizing regional threats. The U.S. military has spent the past 14 days carrying out these “self-defense strikes,” according to a report from Axios, which includes recent attacks on a launch squad on Qeshm Island and the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy’s Second Naval Base in Bandar-e-Jask.
If this story plays out
Scenarios
The undisclosed campaign began as early as Oct 21 with strikes against IRGC units near Sirik, and the most recent raid in Jask reportedly utilized at least four missiles. While the IRGC claims its Aerospace Force recently intercepted a foreign fighter jet over the Qeshm area, neither the U.S. nor the Iranian government has issued an official confirmation of the broader airstrike operation.
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Portfolio
If this story plays out
−8.0%
Portfolio
+0.3%
Oct 28 close
Story, if it plays out
87%−7.5%
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
13%−12.8%
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
2%+4.3%
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
Portfolio
+0.3%
Oct 28 close
Prediction markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by…
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
0%
6%
12%
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
100%
95%
89%
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
100%
95%
89%